EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey Outlines Moderately Optimistic Expectations for the Development of the Economy in 2017
Moderately optimistic expectations for the development of the economy in 2017, economic growth close to the levels of 2016, but also a certain degree of caution – these are the forecasts of Bulgarian companies expressed in the qualitative survey of business expectations in Europe “EUROCHAMBRES Economic Survey 2017” (EES 2017). EES2017 is conducted for the 24th year in a row, based on the responses from 50 500 European businesses from 25 European countries.
In Bulgaria, the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCI) conducts the survey for the 18th year. This year, the survey was conducted among 489 companies, members of BCCI, most of which sale their products internationally (81%).
Bulgaria ranks 6th among the EU member-states with regard to the optimistic expectations for the business climate. The smallest shares of positive expectations are reported with regard to employment and investment. The results of the survey show very good employment results in 2016, but slightly less positive forecasts for its growth in 2017. Fifty eight percent (58%) of the surveyed companies expect that industrial production will remain unchanged in 2017, while 12% expect a decrease in investment and 30% expect growth. Twenty four percent (24%) of the surveyed managers expect that slow domestic demand will be one of the most serious challenges for them in 2017.
Domestic demand seems to be one of the biggest challenges in 2017 for all countries in the EU area, shows the report. In summary, the 2017 survey results maintain the trend from the previous several years for moderate growth expectations by Europe’s business community. Business confidence for 2017 falls slightly compared to 2016. Conversely, expectations for domestic sales, export sales and investment for 2017 improve with respect to 2016. The 2017 employment indicator remains almost the same as the previous year’s. Apart from domestic demand, European companies identify economic policy conditions, labour costs and a lack of skilled workers as the main challenges for 2017.
The difficult international situation, with the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the economies of other commodity exporting countries such as Brazil, the complex political relations with Russia, Brexit, the refugee crisis, combined with the slow pace of the European economic recovery, have dented the confidence and caused it to fall for a second year in a row.
Export forecasts for 2017 show a significant rise, building on last year’s slight improvement. In terms of investments, the overall survey outcome is cautiously positive. This may be attributable to the relatively favourable borrowing conditions, the process of corporate deleveraging that is taking place in several European economies and the upturn in consumption.
